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Can the trend of price in forex trading be predicted The trend trading is a correct nonsense

Today I saw an article "homeopathic trading Forex rebate king hyp Forexrebatekingism" content is probably to say forexrebateindonesia "homeopathic trading" is a correct nonsense in hindsight, make money single, certainly cashback forex homeopathic problem is, before doing, you are very confused the same price level, someone buy naturally someone The same price level, someone buy naturally someone sell that is to say any price bullish cashbackinforex bearish are half to half why you homeopathic people are counter-trend it? On this issue, I also report to you my views on the trend of the current market analysis system, too general four: technical analysis, basic analysis, behavioral finance and quantitative research technical analysis objectively speaking, individual investors use more, a little is very significant, low threshold, easy to learn and easy to use general financial sector educated people, embarrassed to say publicly that they believe in technical analysis because it lacks The scientific seriousness of the "effective market theory" in the academy, technical analysis has been refuted into a pile of Xiang Why? Because the entire theoretical basis of technical analysis building, is built on a very silly premise this premise is not what the three major assumptions but a big white "you see it will know" such as the concept of trend technical analysis of the core, is the trend analysis, technical analysis of the goal, is to distinguish the continuation and reversal but precisely this trend Why does it exist? It can not give you a lofty theoretical explanation of his explanation is "history repeats itself", in my words, "you will know when you look at it", of course, Edwards and McKee also mentioned some explanations such as inertia, integer memory, etc., but they themselves admitted that This explanation, whether correct or not, does not affect the objectivity of the trend because "you know it when you look at it" so the trend, like a porno, lets you define exactly what a porno is, and its okay if you cant say it, but youll say "I know it when I look at it" From this point of view, the trend is naturally present in everyones psyche For example, if the market goes up for a month in a row, as long as a person knows the exact meaning of the word trend, he will call this period of the market a trend But the problem is that the randomly generated results, there will also be a trend This is called statistical illusion For example, we take a coin, heads represent up, tails represent down By randomly flipping a coin, it will also be observed that in a certain So after three consecutive heads, what is the probability of a fourth head coming up after three consecutive tails? Still 50%! Even if there are ten heads in a row, the chances of the eleventh head are still 50%. The famous proponent of efficient market theory, Burton McGill, had his students flip a coin to come up with a "market chart" and then showed it to analysts, who were able to find all kinds of patterns in the middle and come up with buy and sell conclusions. With the help of computers, financiers can use mathematical methods to verify the probability analysis of the K-line They compared the huge amount of big data and still came to the conclusion that there is no correlation between the two K-lines, that is, the appearance of a K-line, and what the previous K-line looks like, there is no relationship at all. The result is also very sad that the probability of hitting this shot is not related to the success rate of the previous shot, so we see in the sports news that the commentators say that so-and-so athletes "get better and better" is not scientific, but only our own mental impression of a basketball players shot is randomly distributed, and will not let the commentators unemployed if If the distribution of the K-line is random, then many analysts and investors in the market will lose sleep not only the ivory tower academics, Wall Street fund managers are also frantically studying trends and their research, not only the desire for knowledge, but also the scramble for wealth from the current level of technology, the computer can beat the highest level of human Go players whose computing power can accurately estimate the universes planets And Wall Street hedge funds have a bunch of physicists and mathematicians studying interstellar science if the K-line operation, there is really a probability distribution of some kind of "trend", then it is easy to be found to use it to make money but, unfortunately, until now have not found even if we assume that there are funds to find such a "We are not dealing with an "objective trend", we are dealing with living people who are just as crazy as we are about finding opportunities. Since the beginning of the speculative market, the brightest human brains, the deepest probability mathematics, and the most sophisticated computers have been devoted to the market without hesitation, day and night, for over 200 years. At the same time, the speculative behavior of the traders themselves, and the determining condition of the price For example, if an institution has discovered that whenever a certain K-line combination appears, the price behind it is bound to rise by 1% then it wont take long for the price to have risen by 1% when the K-line combination is about to be formed, and then this K-line combination disappears! Not to be pessimistic, no one can get a clear "regular" signal to long-term profits so, from this point of view, the appearance of the K-line, to a large extent, is a random trend really does not exist? I really do not think so, but my idea is that the existence of trends is another form of first of all, lets look at how the price is generated by you and I do in front of the computer trader to enter orders to buy and sell, through the collection of bids, in turn generated if you say that there is a mysterious force that makes our behavior appear some kind of inertia, I think there is only one possibility that is the inertia of policy is like a grain of A stone is thrown into the water and immediately there is a series of ripples this series of ripples if we interpret it as a trend, then the trend necessarily depends on the stone, not the ripple itself without the stone there is no ripple simply put, prices are determined by human behavior if there is a trend, it is also human behavior with some kind of trend this person, to be more precise, should be the decision maker who influences price policy, that is, governments governments if To achieve a certain goal, then their policies will appear a certain coherence just like Chinas Belt and Road, Xiongnu New Area formally because of the trend of these policies, which led to the trend of the market from the market analysis, each cycle of market operation, will be around a theme of repeated speculation just like this period of time the dollar large cycle speculation rate hikes, small cycle speculation is the spygate and tax cut bill whether these themes have If we do not look at the main line of operation behind the market, simply look at the graphics "look and know" I think look for a long time will understand, you want to know, or do not know in our circle, an article with a pessimistic argument to end, is very dangerous if this is the circle of friends, may be Will be pulled black to be honest, this circle is popular to beat the chicken blood if a person writes an article not to teach people how to make money, but to tell others why you do not make money and not only not make money now, there is no hope of making money in the future ending will be a little embarrassing not to beat the chicken blood can be forgiven, spill dog blood is that you are not right despite this, I still have to say, and is furthermore the purpose of the trend theory is to provide a classification for the market You can say that the current pattern is an oscillating market, but you still dont know anything about how the next market will evolve. Only the analyst can say what is going on because the analysts position is different from the traders. He must provide a prediction of the future, or judgment in order to gain the trust of others and thus survive decently if the analyst is honest enough. If the analyst is honest enough, then most of the time, he can only tell you that he is as baffled as you are, but this will lose customers and customers are losing money. The analyst who makes frequent stop-losses will soon be stopped out by the customer because the other side will think he is a straw man, while for the trader, he needs to consider the effectiveness of the single processing If a person is more proficient in the analysis of the market, in fact, the farther away from the line of trade This is really a world of difference between the two types of work bias, many traders are in contact with the analyst at the beginning For analysts, admitting that the trend cannot be predicted is as cruel as punching themselves in the face, assuming that prediction is a very unreliable thing, then a large proportion of investors will turn to another direction, completely abandoning the forecast, which is currently the most popular EA trading, that is, programmed trading according to a fixed pattern to trade the market, not to predict at all but This model will also face the challenge of "probability cloud" so-called probability cloud, is that as long as the data in the future will keep appearing, then we will always be in a changing probability of, for example, an indicator, the past months accuracy up to 80%, you think the opportunity is great, really trading down a month, you find that the probability of only 20%! Why? Because his long-term probability is 50%, you just happen to be involved in the process of probability from high to low movement simply put, there is no way to prove that in the past can be profitable signals, in the future can also be profitable we can not accept the idea that prices are random if the price is random, we can not do the deal because once the market is random, we will be forced to face a peculiar First, if prices are random, then the success rate of prediction is no different from flipping a coin. Second, if we dont predict and trade mechanically based on some system, we cant be sure of the systems future performance and are caught in a de facto gamble. In fact, we are confused because we have a deep-rooted assumption: the purpose of forecasting is its accuracy, and if the accuracy of a method of analysis is lower than that of flipping a coin, then it is meaningless. In the financial markets, if the accuracy of a forecast exceeds the coin toss, the role of forecasting does not exist, just as you have been 100% sure that a coin toss game, the probability of heads up is 60% then predict the outcome of each hand is still meaningful? Finally, to summarize their thoughts: 1. You said there are many reasons why the price runs along the trend, but this reason has no predictive meaning, I think this one is difficult to falsify the problem, but about the price is not a trend, I am on your side of this issue I also think there is just difficult to be accurately predicted. 2. mechanical implementation of the trading system, there are indeed benefits, and the profitability over a period of time is also very strong I did not say that mechanical traders can not make money, I Im just saying that this kind of profitability occurs without anticipation essentially, programmed trading is a brilliant gambling technique
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